Thursday, June 2, 2011

Tim Lincecum: Future 2011 All-Star


Last season, Tim Lincecum was an afterthought when trying to decide who should win the 2010 NL Cy Young award.

After winning the award in his first two season, expectations were set high for the kid. He was brilliant before, why would he have a bad season now?

Bad season? I would label it as a down season due to the fact that he still pitched a heck of a season (minus the month of August). Sure, he was his worse in innings pitched, ERA, earned runs, complete games, shutouts, hits allowed, home runs allowed, strikeouts, and WHIP, but he was still selected to his second straight all-star game. 

This season, many experts didn't know what to expect of Lincecum.

He was called out for not working out hard enough by his dad and the media in August, and then he turned it around in September and in the playoffs. 

So far he has started in 12 games, winning 5, losing 4 and has posted a 2.59 ERA. Along with the low ERA, his strikeout rate is high, his WHIP is low and he is pitching like his old self again.

Today he ranks seventh in the NL in ERA (2.59), third in strikeouts (88), second in innings pitched (83.1) and top 10 in WHIP and opponents batting average (1.09 and .221).

These stats give us a pretty good idea of how well Lincecum has pitched so far this season, but when we compare him with Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee, he still fairs quite well.


Name Team Wins ERA Strikeouts WHIP Batting Average.
Tim Lincecum SF 5 2.59 88 1.09 .221
Roy Halladay PHI 7 2.56 91 1.07 .246
Cliff Lee PHI 4 3.94 90 1.26 .264
Clayton Kershaw LAD 6 2.62 87 1.10 .218

Now due to run support differences (and oh boy are they differences), wins are not a weighing factor. 

Just for fun lets compare run support for the same pitchers:
Tim Lincecum- 3.83 runs for per game
Roy halladay- 3.92 runs for per game
Cliff Lee- 3.5 runs for per game
Clayton Kershaw- 3.83 runs for per game
These numbers directly translate in the the number of wins. Because of the Giants below average offense, wins will not be used as a valid pitching stat in my all-star picks. 

With the numbers I have provided, Lincecum will probably make the All-star team for his third straight year. 

That is, unless, Charlie Manuel picks his entire pitching staff before any other teams pitcher...

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