Fantasy Forecast: San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants won the 2010 World Series.

I love typing that, because the numbness in my fingers have yet to leave since November 1st, 2010, the day of all days.

Basically this team was never going to win a ring in San Francisco. After putting together an All-Star lineup with guys like Mays and McCovey in the 60's, drafting a young core in the 80's with Clark and Thompson, as well as acquiring one of the best hitters in the history of the game in the early 00's, the Giants were considered cursed.

Last year, the Giants competed and battled with the Dodgers, Rockies and the surprisingly decent Padres all year long, with ranks ranging from 4th place to eventually 1st.

Heading into spring training, this season looks different. Will the Giants crumble under the high expectations set by the fans? Will they be better than last season? Will Tim Lincecum ever cut his hair?

So many questions, and so far, zero answers. For now, all I can provide is some predictions for you fantasy owners.

Key Acquisitions:
Miguel Tejada (Signed)
Jeff Suppan (signed minor league contract)

Key Losses:
Juan Uribe (Signed with Dodgers)
Edgar Renteria (Signed with Reds)
Eugenio Velez (Signed with Dodgers)
Jose Guillen (Free Agent)

Players to Target

I believe the top two fantasy values for 2011 on the Giants team is RHP Tim Lincecum, and catcher Buster Posey. Tim Lincecum had his worst season last year, but was still the Giants best pitcher, and was also still one of the top pitchers in the NL. He had a 16-10 record with a 3.43 ERA with a WAR of 3.5. Still a very decent season, but not as good as his first two seasons where he posted WARs of 6.9 and 6.3 respectively. This season Yahoo! Sports has him projected as the 3rd highest ranked pitcher averaging a pick in the 3rd round. I have my own projected numbers for Tim next season here, but here's his value: he has yet to suffer any serious injuries, and he strikes out a whole lot of hitters, big fantasy value here.

Buster Posey is another story. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year only played two thirds of last season but still punched out 18 home runs and 67 RBI while hitting .305/.357/.505. He also had an outrageous month in July that included a 21-game hitting streak. He is due for a whole season starting at a quiet offensive position at catcher. He will be a big upgrade for most fantasy teams next year as Yahoo! thinks he is worthy of the 41st pick overall. Here are my projected numbers from Mr. Posey. Get him if you can.

Sleepers


There are a couple candidates under this category: Pablo Sandoval and rookie Brandon Belt. Sandoval has the edge here, as Belt has yet to claim a starting spot at 1st base. Sandoval struggled last season after a fantastic rookie season at 3rd base. Now he has been working hard this off season to regain his powerful hitting and above average defense. He has been documenting his workout progress and he looks a lot thinner, and way more determined. If he isn't drafted in your league, pick him up afterwards, he could surprise all of us once again.

Jeff Suppan Signs Minor League Deal, Could Fix Sixth Starter Problems

Jeff Suppan pitched for Boston, Kansas City, St. Louis, Arizona,
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee in his career.

The Giants, until now, were a set lineup with one lingering issue: the 6th starter.

This position is typically used for insurance, in case one of the starting five become injured. In the Giants case, if Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain becomes injured, the Giants would be left with a gapping hole in their top tier rotation.

As a team that relies on their talented pitching, a sixth starter is just as important as the first five. So, the Giants filled the potential position with Jeff Suppan, a 36 year-old seasoned veteran.

Entering his 17th season in the majors, Suppan has been a streaky pitcher, sporting a career 4.69 ERA and a 12.6 WAR.

To provide some perspective: Todd Wellenmeyer has a career -1.1, while Barry Zito's WAR since joining the Giants is 4.2. So the good news is that Suppan is not as bad as Wellenmeyer, but still not as good as Zito (who actually hasn't been too bad as of recent).

So a minor league contract and an invite to spring training for Suppan, the Giants are getting a good deal on a veteran 6th starter. The price, you ask? A mere $1 million with performance bonuses he could earn as the season goes on.

This move may seem insignificant to some people, but if the Giants lose any of their starting rotation, this acquisition will seem like a blessing sent from the baseball gods.

So for now, lets all hope our starting rotation stays intact and Suppan fills in wherever we need him.

Cody Ross Avoids Arbitration

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, tweets this morning:

Cody Ross signs with #Giants for $6.3M, avoiding arb. #MLB

Good news, I guess. Ross was expecting a pay day of $4.5-5 million in arbitration, so I guess the Giants front office decided to give him a little bonus for killing the Phillies in the playoffs.

Rusty's Player Projections: Matt Cain

Matt Cain is a quiet mastermind, silently pitching as effective as Tim Lincecum but with little or no flash or excitement. After all, Cain has little to smile about after posting a 57-62 W-L record in the past 6 seasons with the Giants despite putting up a 3.45 career ERA.

Complete frustration for poor Mr. Cain.

He has been tainted with such a curse for so long, and yet he has not let one complaint trickle from his mouth. He's a gamer, a work horse and a dominator of all hitters.

Last season, when the Giants were slumping early in the season, Matt Cain and the Giants headed in to San Diego for a much-needed win. So what do we get?

A complete game one-hitter from Cain, but we suffered a 1-0 loss. The lone score in the game came from a blooper single and a sacrifice fly. Cain had reached his limits. Only the most cursed would receive such bad luck.

Things turned around.

After a career year from Cain in 2009, Cain posted another respectable stat line of 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA while posting a career high in innings (223.1), H/9 (7.3), WHIP (1.084) and BB/9 (2.5). After reaching the All-Star Game in 2009, Cain ranked 12th in NL Cy Young voting, gaining some more national recognition after being in Tim Lincecum's shadow his whole career.

Also a notable statistic: Cain was 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 21.1 innings, allowing just 13 hits, 7 walks while striking out 13 against the Braves Rangers and Phillies powerful offenses.

After ending last season on a hot streak, I'm predicting another good season for Cain:

15-9 Record
218 Innings
2.84 ERA
188 Strikeouts
1 lifted curse
0 complaints

Feel free to post your own Matt Cain predictions in the comments below!

Rusty's Player Projections: Buster Posey

Gerald "Buster" Posey is a wild card. He is hard to predict due to the fact that he is just 23 years old, he has  half of a season of Major League ball under his belt, and that he is good. But how good?

Right now it's hard for me to pin point his ceiling. Last season he exploded with 18 home runs, 67 RBI, a .305/.357/.505 stat line as well as a 21-game hitting streak (one hit shy of tying a franchise record for rookies). That's a really good second half.

He also displayed miraculous defense and handled an ace pitching staff throughout the season, cementing his place in the starting catcher position. But how good will he get?

Some see him as a young Joe Mauer or the next Johnny Bench, two names that stick out as some of the greatest catchers of all time. ZiPS Projections, an accurate guide to all ball players, expects Posey to hit .297/.366/.479 while hitting 21 home runs and gathering 92 RBI next season. So what does this mean?

Posey is damn good. There is no other way to say it, so without further adieu, here is how good I believe he is:

.300 Batting average
.369 On-Base %
.486 Slugging %
25 Home runs
96 RBI
1 Gold Glove

Not bad for the reigning N.L. Rookie of the year. As always, feel free to post your own predictions for Buster Posey in to comments below.

Links of the day

Another slow day for the Giants, but here are some links on some action going on:

• Edgar Renteria and the Giants are trying to reach a deal

• Here's a list of arbitration-eligible players, including a few Giants. They must agree on a deal by the 18th.

• Also, if you tune in here at 11 pm Eastern, you will be tuning in on Blog Talk Radio hosted by the BBA. Tonight they will be discussing a little on the Phillies and mostly on the Hall of Fame ballot being picked tomorrow. If you cant listen live, feel free to listen to their archived podcasts.

Thats all the Giants news going on today, but on the bright side, pitchers and catchers report to spring training in 5 weeks. So close...

Rusty's Player Projections: Brian Wilson

*In every off-season, I will predict stat lines of most of the Giants for the upcoming season. These are usually determined pretty freely so don't be afraid to comment below with your own predictions.


Brian Wilson may be known for his wild looks and hilarious charisma, but on the field, he is feared by hitters and trusted by coaches.

Every ninth inning the Giants had a lead, Wilson was sent out to finish the job. The atmosphere is electric, the situation is tense and the game is on the line, but that never scares Mr. Wilson.

Earlier last season I wrote an article here that showed how Wilson is slowly becoming the next Robb Nen. A bold prediction on my part, but after this season I may just be right.

A career year has earned him an All-Star appearance, a MLB Network Reliever of the Year Award, and the NL Rolaids Relief Award for best closer. Oh, and he pretty much dominated every hitter he faced in the playoffs and World Series.

Last season he posted a 1.81 ERA (a career high that lead all closers) with a franchise record tie in saves (48) with Rod Beck. He also tossed 93 strikeouts in only 74.2 innings for an insane 11.2 S/9 average.

His stuff is explosive, he intimidates batters by looking at them, coining the catchphrase "Fear the Beard" that rang throughout the Giants fan base. A fan favorite, beloved by many (including your's truly), and another great homegrown talent for this Giants organization.

Now here's his projection:

2.02 ERA
73.0 Innings Pitched
91 Strikeouts
50 saves (yeah, it'll happen)
100% AwEsOmE!

Feel free to post your own projections for Mr. Wilson in the comments below!

Rusty's Player Projections: Freddy Sanchez

*In every off-season, I will predict stat lines of most of the Giants for the upcoming season. These are usually determined pretty freely so don't be afraid to comment below with your own predictions.




Today we will cover Freddy Sanchez and try to predict his second full season as a Giant in 2011. A former Pittsburgh Pirate, Sanchez has never been on a winning team until joining the Giants in a deadline trade in 2009.

Now he is a world series champion in a contract year with the Giants at a peak year of 33. Freddy Sanchez is a tricky player to predict stats; he is injured so frequently, it's tough to pin point any consistent season to base my projection.

In 2009 when he was first traded to the Giants, Sanchez only played in 25 for San Francisco due to a knee and shoulder injury. Last season, he played in only 111 games, being held off the field by more injuries.

Despite his fragile body, he has found some consistency as of late by putting up a batting average hovering around .300 and by playing some good defense at second base.

Last year he put up a .292/.342/.397 stat line with 7 home runs and 47 RBI; a decent production for a second baseman. As a former All-star and batting champion, I see another solid season for Freddy Sanchez:

.296 batting average
.358 On-Base %
.395 Slugging %
9 home runs
56 RBI

List your Freddy Sanchez 2011 predictions in the comments below!